Bitcoin Slips on White Paper Anniversary: Weekly ETF Outflows Hit $600M | Crypto Market Analysis (2025)

Crypto Markets Shaken: Is this the Beginning of the End, or Just a Speed Bump? Bitcoin Stumbles on Its Anniversary!

October 31, 2025, 11:15 a.m. ET – The crypto world is waking up to a sobering reality. Despite celebrating the 17th anniversary of Bitcoin's white paper release, the market is showing signs of strain. Are we seeing a temporary dip, or a more significant correction on the horizon? Let's dive into the details.

What You Need to Know:

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise indicated)

The cryptocurrency market experienced a general downturn in the past 24 hours, largely influenced by a sell-off in equities. This sell-off was triggered by major U.S. tech giants like Meta and Microsoft announcing increased investment projections in Artificial Intelligence (AI), sparking concerns about potential overspending. It seems the ghosts of market volatility came early this Halloween.

Bitcoin's Anniversary Blues:

Bitcoin (BTC) showed minimal movement, decreasing by a mere 0.3% to approximately $110,000. This lackluster performance occurred on the 17th anniversary of the publication of its white paper – a foundational document that outlined the principles of this revolutionary technology. Ether (ETH) also felt the pressure, dropping by 1.3% to around $3,840. This seemingly minor pullback arrives as market participants carefully analyze the evolving landscape of interest rates and inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. But here's where it gets controversial... Some analysts believe that Bitcoin's inability to rally on such a symbolic day indicates a deeper fatigue within the market, while others maintain that it's simply a reflection of broader economic anxieties.

Central Banks and Rate Cut Expectations:

The European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be taking a break from its rate-cutting cycle. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has indicated that an interest-rate cut in December is "not a foregone conclusion." This means it's not a guaranteed thing! Traders are now reassessing the likelihood of future rate cuts. For instance, on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025?tid=1761904155489), the perceived probability of three U.S. rate cuts this year has decreased significantly, sliding from 86% to 64%. This shift in expectations is adding to the overall market uncertainty.

ETF Outflows: A Sign of Investor Caution?

Crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned negative, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows of $600 million so far this week, while ETH ETFs have registered outflows of $184.3 million, according to data from SoSoValue (https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-eth-spot). And this is the part most people miss... ETF flows are often considered a barometer of institutional and retail investor confidence. Significant outflows can signal a lack of conviction in the near-term prospects of these assets.

According to Bitget COO Vugar Usi Zade, the ETF outflows are "showing signs of investor caution," with the Fear & Greed Index (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/) sliding further into "fear" territory. The Fear & Greed Index is a tool used to gauge overall market sentiment. A reading in the "fear" territory suggests that investors are becoming increasingly risk-averse.

Zade elaborated in an emailed statement: "This transition certainly reflects growing macro anxiety, fueled by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path." However, he added a note of optimism, stating that "despite the pullback, on-chain activity remains resilient, and the structural case for crypto exposure is still intact."

Zade highlighted long-term factors such as the Bitcoin halving expected in 2028 and evolving global regulations as potential catalysts for long-term rallies. He cautioned, however, that "timing is always uncertain."

Coinbase's Bright Spot:

Amid the general market gloom, Coinbase reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The exchange posted $1.9 billion in revenue and confirmed that its layer-2 network, Base, is now profitable. This profitability is attributed to higher ETH prices and increasing transaction volume, demonstrating continued on-chain adoption. What does this mean for you? It means that despite the price fluctuations, people are still actively using and building on blockchain technology.

Derivatives Market Hints at Income Strategies:

Meanwhile, derivatives positioning indicates that Bitcoin traders are focusing on income strategies within the $105,000–$115,000 range, according to Wintermute Strategist Jasper De Maere.

Bitget’s COO added, "Over the next few weeks, markets will likely remain sensitive to macro data releases — including Fed commentary, inflation prints, and labor market signals — as well as any resolution to the ongoing government shutdown. These factors may drive sentiment swings, but they don’t alter the longer-term trajectory."

What to Watch Out For:

For a comprehensive list of events this week, check out CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead" (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/24/fed-interest-rate-decision-and-a-potential-merger-crypto-week-ahead).

• Crypto:
  • Oct. 31: The 17th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper (https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf).
• Macro:
  • Oct. 31, 8 a.m.: Brazil Sept. Unemployment Rate (Est. 5.5%).
  • Oct. 31, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Aug. GDP MoM (Est. 0%).
• Earnings:
  • No significant earnings reports scheduled.

Token Events

For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead" (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/24/fed-interest-rate-decision-and-a-potential-merger-crypto-week-ahead).

• Governance votes & calls:
  • No major governance votes or calls.
• Unlocks:
  • Oct. 31: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.24% of its circulating supply (worth $13.07 million).
  • Oct. 31: OP to unlock 1.71% of its circulating supply (worth $13.79 million).
• Token Launches:
  • Oct. 31: NEO legacy mainnet shuts down (https://x.com/Neo_Blockchain/status/1937761220683268105).

Conferences

For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead" (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/24/fed-interest-rate-decision-and-a-potential-merger-crypto-week-ahead).

• Day 2 of 3: CosmosVerse Balkans 2025 (Split, Croatia).
• Day 1 of 3: Ethereum Mexico (Monterrey, Mexico).

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• The altcoin market is heading into the weekend lower than a week ago, with Ether losing 2.5% at $3,850.
• Many tokens broke through key levels of support, dragging the average down. The CoinDesk 80 Index, a measure of the smallest of the top 100 tokens, fell 3.8% while the CoinDesk 20 dropped 1.3%.
• Doublezero (2z), plasma, gate token (GT) and ENA, all declined by between 15% and 21% after extending losses on Friday.
• A few tokens bucked the trend, notably in-vogue privacy coin Zcash, which is up by 5% on Friday to add to a weekly gain of 47%.
• The TRUMP memecoin also performed well after it emerged that the company behind the token plans to buy fundraising platform Republic. TRUMP rose 35% over the past seven days.
• The altcoin market outlook now depends on whether ether can cling on to its current level of support at $3,700, an area that provided three bounces in October.
• A break below that level would indicate weakness and a potential macro trend reversal, which is likely to be reflected across the entire altcoin market.

Derivatives Positioning

• The bitcoin futures market is in a state of consolidation, with no clear trend emerging.
• Open interest (OI) fell slightly to $26.16 billion, though it remains elevated. Open Interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled.
• Funding rates across most venues are little changed, indicating low general demand. There is, however, isolated bullish demand evident on specific platforms, like Deribit, where rates spiked to an annualized 8%.
• The three-month annualized basis, meanwhile, remains subdued in the 4%-5% range, confirming that the basis trade is currently unappealing.
• In options, there is a shift toward near-term neutral-to-bearish sentiment, despite maintaining a positive structural bias. The implied volatility (IV) term structure continues to show a near-term backwardation before moving into long-term contango.
• While the one-week 25-delta skew remains positive at 8%, indicating a premium is still paid for short-term calls, this conviction is being challenged by the 24-hour put/call volume, which has flipped to a 56%-43% in favor of puts, suggesting near-term downside hedging or speculation is currently dominating trading activity.
• Coinglass data shows $879 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 86-14 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($303 million), ETH ($193 million) and others ($79 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $111,000 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 2.19% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $109,880.54 (24hrs: -0.19%)
• ETH is up 2.4% at $3,846.88 (24hrs: -1.21%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.36% at 3,604.98(24hrs: -1.68%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 9 bps at 2.93%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.004% (4.3526% annualized) on OKX
• DXY is unchanged at 99.53
• Gold futures are unchanged at $4,013.00
• Silver futures are down 0.55% at $48.35
• Nikkei 225 closed up 2.12% at 52,411.34
• Hang Seng closed down 1.43% at 25,906.65
• FTSE is down 0.43% at 9,718.26
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.35% at 5,679.50
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.23% at 47,522.12
• S&P 500 closed down 0.99% at 6,822.34
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.57% at 23,581.14
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.11% at 30,178.98
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.99% at 2,999.83
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.103%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.66% at 6,900.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.18% at 26,188.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 47,683.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.98% (0.16%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03500 (-0.37%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,138 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $44.62
• Total Fees: 2.86 BTC / $311,977
• CME Futures Open Interest: 138,115 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 26.1 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.36%

Technical Analysis

• The ETH-BTC one-week rate looks likely to trade within a range.
• There was a rejection at core weekly resistance back in August (around the time of the ether digital-asset treasury trade) and since then, the RSI has been declining (still not neutral).
• It's likely that ETH-BTC will trade within the current weekly resistance and support meaning the risk-return on ether over bitcoin is unlikely to be attractive for the time being.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $328.51 (-5.77%), +4.83% at $344.38 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $122.71 (-6.85%), +3.24% at $126.68
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $34.13 (-6.31%), +2.84% at $35.10
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $49.95 (-4.98%), +1.18% at $50.54
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.76 (-5.93%), +2.65% at $18.23
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.09 (-4.87%), +4.74% at $22.09
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $20.74 (-0.14%), +3.38% at $21.44
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.69 (-6.35%), +2.77% at $18.18
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $56.71 (-3.31%), +2.50% at $58.13
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.73 (-3.81%), -1.56% at $23.36

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $254.57 (-7.55%), +6.77% at $271.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $24.61 (-5.29%), +1.89% at $25.08
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.77 (-6.17%), +3.29% at $13.19
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.26 (-6.17%), +4.46% at $4.45
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.95 (-6.25%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$488.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $61.34 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$184.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $14.48 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million

Source: Farside Investors (https://farside.co.uk/btc/)

While You Were Sleeping

• China, Canada Leaders Meet First Time Since 2017 to Reset Ties (Bloomberg): On APEC’s sidelines in South Korea, Xi Jinping invited Prime Minister Mark Carney to visit China signaling groundwork for renewed engagement after years of strained ties.
• Riot Platforms Shares Jump Pre-Market After Posting Unexpected Profit on Record Revenue (CoinDesk): Net income was $104.5 million, or 26 cents vs. an expected 12-cent loss, on $180.2 million in revenue. Also, Riot began a 112-megawatt Corsicana, Texas data center buildout.
• Protect Bitcoin Exposure With Ether Shorts: Research Firm (CoinDesk): With Bitmine share issuance slowing and options and search data tilting against ETH, 10x says ether is the weaker leg, making short ETH a hedge for BTC longs.
• 'HOPIUM' for Bitcoin Price Bulls (CoinDesk): One ray of hope for BTC is that the 200-week simple moving average is about $54,750, still well below bitcoin’s 2021 peak near $70,000.
• T3 Financial Crime Unit, Backed by Tron, Tether, TRM Labs, Has Now Frozen $300M in Assets (CoinDesk): In its first year, the unit coordinated cross-border seizures with police on five continents, targeting pig-butchering rings and laundering networks, and launched an exchange-led program for real-time freezes.
• Trump’s Vow to Resume Nuclear Tests Leaves Experts Puzzled (The Wall Street Journal): With no details from the White House, even the U.S. nuclear commander nominee can’t say if Trump means underground blasts, low-yield experiments or missile trials, risking renewed testing by rivals.

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What do you think? Are these ETF outflows a temporary blip, or a sign of deeper trouble for Bitcoin and Ether? Is the market overreacting to macro anxieties, or are these legitimate concerns that could trigger a more prolonged downturn? Share your thoughts in the comments below!